Teams on the Rise in 2013 – Kansas City Chiefs

By NickGuarisco on June 5, 2013

The third team of the four-post “Spoiling the Surprise” series is the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs imploded internally last season after many experts (including myself) actually predicted the Chiefs to be a surprise wildcard playoff team (perhaps the call was one year too early). The team went 2-14 last season due to poor coaching and quarterback play. The organization also had to cope with the suicide of starting ILB Jovan Belcher midway through the season. However, there are reasons for optimism this season. The Chiefs have a new coach, new quarterback, and six Pro Bowl players. Not to mention, they play in a weak division. Despite being the worst team in football last season, I believe the Chiefs may have the best chance to make the playoffs over any of the four potential surprise teams I’m writing about.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Why they’ll surprise:

Andy Reid is still a top-10 coach in the NFL. I’m not saying the Eagles made a bad decision letting Reid go. They needed a culture change, and Reid’s team had vastly underachieved the last two seasons. That’s how the NFL works. But let’s not forget the success Reid had with Philadelphia. Reid was consistently bringing the Eagles to the NFC Championship, and the Eagles were major Super Bowl contenders every year. The Eagles went to the playoffs an astounding 9 times in Reid’s 13-year tenure with Philadelphia. He’s amassed a 140-102-1 career regular record. And it’s not like Reid took over a quality team; the Eagles took Donovan McNabb with the second overall pick in the draft in Reid’s inaugural season. Basically, there was a reason that Reid was only without a job for one weekend after being let go by Philadelphia. He’s an outstanding coach, and he knows exactly how to rebuild a bad team and make it successful.

The first major move Reid made in Kansas City was acquiring a quarterback to fit Reid’s quick-hitting timing-based west coast offense. The Chiefs brought in Alex Smith, who has won 20 of his last 25 games as a starter. Smith, 29, was the first overall pick of the 2005 draft. After a rocky start to his career, Smith has picked up his play lately, displaying the talent and reason he was (wrongly) selected 22 picks ahead of Aaron Rodgers. Smith has an impressive 30-10 TD/INT ratio in the last two years with an average QB rating of 97. Smith, who many have deemed as an efficient game-manager with San Francisco, will likely have the same role in Kansas City. He won’t be asked to do too much, but even if he is, he’s leaps and bounds ahead of Matt Cassel and Brady Quinn, who split reps at quarterback last season.

Aside from the quarterback and coaching upgrades, the Chiefs also had a very strong offseason. The Chiefs made out like bandits getting the first overall pick in the draft based on the talent they already possessed on their roster. Eric Fisher will start and succeed immediately as the Chiefs right tackle. The teams’ second round pick yielded Alex Smith. In the third round, the Chiefs drafted the second most talented TE in this year’s draft class, Travis Kelce. Kansas City made a huge splash in free agency this offseason, acquiring a pair of talented CBs in Sean Smith (MIA) and Dunta Robinson (ATL). Throw in Brandon Flowers, who is perhaps the NFL’s third or fourth best cornerback, and that’s a stacked set of CBs that can potentially match up with Denver’s dirty trio of wide receivers. The Chiefs also signed 3-4 DE Mike DeVito from the Jets, an extremely underrated player. ILB Akeem Jordan, a Reid favorite, was brought over from Philadelphia to take over Jovan Belcher’s empty spot. Offensively, WR Donnie Avery, TE Anthony Fasano and LG Geoff Schwartz all represent solid signings that will at the very least provide quality depth.

The offensive line and running game will play a big role in the team’s success. The team was able to keep LT Branden Albert despite his desire to be traded (presuming the Chiefs drafted a tackle with the first overall pick that assumed his LT spot, forcing him to right tackle). He’s a quality starting left tackle, and he’ll get to play there this season after the Chiefs declared that first overall selection, tackle Eric Fisher, would man the RT spot during his rookie year. This is a move that works in the best interest for the team, as now the Chiefs have two quality bookend tackles. The rest of the Chiefs o-line is rock-solid. RG Jon Asamoah and LG Geoff Schwartz are two extremely underrated players. Center Rodney Hudson returns healthy after going on IR in week 3 last season, giving the Chiefs a strong interior core. I recently ranked the Chiefs’ unit #11 in my offensive line rankings.

Another reason I think the Chiefs will bounce back this season is because the talent is already on the roster. The Chiefs surprisingly had six Pro Bowlers last season. Jamaal Charles is a super star RB that rushed for more than 1,500 yards last season on a 2-14 team. He’s now another year recovered from his ACL tear in 2011. Dwayne Bowe is a talented WR on the outside. ILB Derrick Johnson is one of the best 3-4 inside backers in the NFL. Tamba Hali and Justin Houston provide a great pass-rushing duo OLB. CB Brandon Flowers is one of the best corners in the game, and FS Eric Berry has the tools to be great. Throw in the free agents from an awesome offseason, and we’re looking at a very capable roster.

Why they could fail:

Even though he’s had recent success, Alex Smith is more of a glorified game manager that played on a great team. Smith has never really shown the ability to put the team on his back and take over games. He’s an efficient player that doesn’t make a lot of mistakes, which is fine. But the Chiefs will be losing more than 49ers were, so Smith will be asked to throw more in the second half, especially consider Andy Reid’s pass-happy history.

Jamaal Charles has never been a 300+ touch player, and he’s all the Chiefs have at RB. Gone are the likes of Peyton Hillis and Jackie Battle. If Charles gets hurt shouldering the load, rookie Knile Davis is the next man up, and I have serious doubts about his NFL ability. The lack of depth is obvious at WR too. If Dwayne Bowe goes down, then it’s unlikely that Donnie Avery, Dexter McCluster and first-round bust Jon Baldwin could remotely pick up the slack.

Defensive linemen Tyson Jackson (DE) and Dontari Poe (NT) haven’t shown nearly enough promise in their careers to think they can be relied on as starters. The Chiefs run defense could be susceptible if they don’t have better seasons in 2013.

What I expect:

The Chiefs now have a quarterback who is 20-5 in his last 25 games as a starter, amassing a 30-10 TD/INT ratio and a QB rating of 97 during that span, replacing Matt Cassel and Brady Quinn. They have a top-10 head coach with 9 playoff appearances in 13 years replacing the inept Romeo Crennel. They have the best set of CBs in the NFL in Sean Smith, Brandon Flowers and Dunta Robinson. They have two 10+ sack OLBs in Justin Houston and Tamba Hali. They also return 6 Pro Bowlers and have a strong offensive line. And they play an easy schedule in an easy division/conference.

I can see the Chiefs going from the NFL’s worst team (2-14 in 2012) to the playoffs in the AFC. I think a 10-6 record as the AFC’s 5th seed in the playoffs is the ceiling, but an 8-8 or 9-7 record (2nd in the AFC West) is more realistic.

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*Photo Credit: Jamie Squire – Getty Images

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