Round 1 of the NFL Draft kicks off on Thursday, April 25th. As usual, I’ve spent countless hours studying this year’s draft class, analyzing team needs, and researching all kinds of draft-related rumors in order to determine possible first round fits.

The MAIN GOAL of this Mock Draft is to MINIMIZE THE SURPRISES. In other words, the fewer the surprises that occur in the minds of those who have read this Mock Draft, the better I did my job.

This year, you can check out my MOCK DRAFT HISTORY AND EXPERT ACCURACY to see how I’ve done over the years, and you can compare the results with the experts in the industry!

NOTE: My Mock Draft will be updated and modified daily up until the draft.

(Last Updated: 4/23/2019)

ROUND 1 

1. ARI – Kyler Murray (QB – Okla.) – Either the Cardinals select Murray and trade Josh Rosen, or Oakland goes all in on Arizona’s beautifully crafted smokescreen/bluff and pays a king’s ransom for Murray. Murray is a pretty safe bet for #1 overall either way.
Short List: Kyler Murray, Nick Bosa, Quinnen Williams

2. SF – Nick Bosa (ED – OSU) – There’s talk of Bosa’s extreme right-wing views being in conflict with the mostly liberal fan base in San Francisco (he’s had to delete tweets, etc.), and I acknowledge that the 49ers have invested heavily in the D-Line lately (signing Dee Ford, drafting Arik Armstead, DeForest Buckner, and Solomon Thomas in the first round in three the last four drafts). All that aside, San Francisco likely views Bosa as the best football player in this draft, and he fits well in their scheme, too.
Short List: Nick Bosa, Quinnen Williams, Josh Allen

3. NYJ – Quinnen Williams (DT – ‘Bama) – Reports indicate the Jets are highly interested in trading down, which makes sense. If they cannot find a trade partner, the Jets are expected to draft a pass rusher. Adam Gase and Gregg Williams track records indicate they value pass rushers, and the Jets were spurned by Anthony Barr at the last moment. Based on everything I’ve heard, if the Jets stay put, it looks like this pick will come down to Quinnen Williams or Ed Oliver, rather than DE Josh Allen… If the Jets are able to trade down to the 8-15 range, I think they will focus on protecting the young Sam Darnold.
Short List: Nick Bosa, Ed Oliver, Quinnen Williams, Josh Allen; TRADE DOWN: Andre Dillard, Jonah Williams

4. OAK – Ed Oliver (DT – Houston) – The Raiders are in a good spot before a talent drop-off. I do NOT think the Raiders view Carr as their franchise QB, making a splash move up for Kyler Murray possible, but not probable. It’s worth mentioning that Jon Gruden coached Drew Lock at the Senior Bowl, and the team has met with Dwayne Haskins three times. Ultimately, however, I think new GM Mike Mayock will stay true to his board and play it safe with his BPA (best player available) on defense, where Oakland has many needs. The preferred defenders are Nick Bosa > Quinnen Williams > Ed Oliver > Devin White > Josh Allen. I have a hunch that GM Mike Mayock is very fond of Devin White. T.J. Hockenson are dark horses here.
Short List: Kyler Murray … Nick Bosa, Quinnen Williams, Ed Oliver, Josh Allen, Dwayne Haskins, Devin White… TRADE DOWN: T.J. Hockenson, Brian Burns

5. TB – Devin White (LB – LSU) – The Buccaneers should have Devin White as the #2 player overall on their board, behind Quinnen Williams. Tampa Bay is also high on Devin Bush and could trade down a few spots to take him, especially if for whatever reason White was taken. Whoever falls to 5 out of Ed Oliver and Josh Allen will be considered, too. Inside linebackers are not typically drafted in the top 5, but Bruce Arians and Todd Bowles have a history of valuing and drafting rangy, athletic ILBs highly.
Short List: Quinnen Williams, Devin White, Josh Allen, Ed Oliver; TRADE DOWN: Devin Bush

6. NYG – Josh Allen (DE – Kent.) – I think the Giants are waiting to see if a blue-chip D-lineman becomes available at 6. If not, I expect Duke QB Daniel Jones to be the [surprising] pick. The Giants sent a large group of higher-ups to Duke’s Pro Day. Daniel Jones and Eli Manning have the same types of personality, mannerisms, and playing styles. They have worked with the same QB coach, and Jones has reached out to Eli on several occasions for mentorship. Whether or not we agree with Jones being the top QB on the Giants’ board or being worthy of a top-10 pick, we cannot ignore obvious connections here. Above all, however, old school GM Dave Gettleman will prioritize his team’s pass rush.
Short List: Quinnen Williams, Josh Allen, Devin White, Ed Oliver, Christian Wilkins, Brian Burns … Daniel Jones, Dwayne Haskins

7. JAX – Jonah Williams (OL – ‘Bama) – Look for Jacksonville to address the passing game with this pick. Maybe it’s a pass protector, or maybe it’s a pass catcher. The Jags O-Line was bit by the injury bug last season, and the team opted to let RT Jermey Parnell walk in free agency. Jawaan Taylor and Jonah Williams’ dominance in the running game makes them more attractive to the old school Tom Coughlin, who would love to get Leonard Fournette going. Of course, T.J. Hockenson’s blocking prowess can also help in the running game, while being that Zach Ertz outlet that Nick Foles needs. In sum, I believe this pick comes down to Taylor, Williams, or Hockenson, but the Jags can opt for TE early in Round 2, so I lean toward O-Line.
Short List: Jonah Williams, T.J. Hockenson, Jawaan Taylor

8. DET – Andre Dillard (OT – Wash. St.) *TRADE* – The Lions are looking to move down from this pick. If any team wants to jump Denver to snag a QB like Dwayne Haskins or Drew Lock, the Lions may be the team to call. Detroit, like Seattle last year, has vocalized its primary objective of improving its running game, so an offensive lineman – Jawaan Taylor, Jonah Williams, Andre Dillard – cannot be ruled out. The Lions were rumored to want TWO new tight ends in the beginning of the offseason in an effort to revamp their TE room. Matt Patricia comes form New England, a team that wasn’t shy about utilizing TEs.
Short List: Josh Allen, Ed Oliver, Devin White … Jonah Williams, T.J. Hockenson, Jawaan Taylor, Christian Wilkins … TRADE DOWN: Byron Murphy, Chris Lindstrom, Montez Sweat, Rashan Gary  

9. BUF – Jawaan Taylor (OT – Florida) – The Bills could pounce if somehow Quinnen Williams, Ed Oliver or Josh Allen slide past the Giants, as I see BUF and DET being willing trading partners. In fact, if there’s any team I think will MOVE UP for one of those three premier D-Linemen, it’s the Bills. Teams that have young QBs tend to prioritize offensive line early, so if Buffalo stays at 9, I’m thinking Jawaan Taylor, Jonah Williams, or TE T.J. Hockenson to help out their QB Josh Allen, who was hit at the second highest rate in the NFL last season. It’s worth noting that Jonah Williams played for Bills OC Brian Daboll at Alabama.
Short List: TRADE UP: Quinnen Williams, Ed Oliver, Josh Allen … Jawaan Taylor, Jonah Williams, T.J. Hockenson, Christian Wilkins, Brian Burns

10. DEN – Devin Bush (LB – Mich) – Denver would love for Ed Oliver or Devin White to be available, but that’s unlikely. Devin Bush and T.J. Hockenson would be the next best non-QB options. I’m not totally buying that the team is settled on QB with Joe Flacco. The opposite should be true. It was the worst kept secret early in the draft process that Denver loved Drew Lock. Maybe post Flacco trade, Denver takes a defender here and trades back into Round 1 if Drew Lock is sliding; be on the look out for that if Denver trades down. New DC Vic Fangio’s Bears drafted ILB Roquan Smith at 8 overall last year and will bang the table for White/Bush. New OL Coach Mike Munchak could use some more talent up front, too, but that should be addressed in the later rounds.
Short List: Ed Oliver, Devin White … Devin Bush, T.J. Hockenson, Drew Lock, Dwayne Haskins, Andre Dillard … TRADE DOWN: Garrett Bradbury, Chris Lindstrom

11. CIN – Brian Burns (ED – FSU) – One of the two “Devin” linebackers – White or Bush – should be the primary targets. The Bengals’ defense allowed 7.9 YPA and were gashed in the second level by opposing RBs and TEs last season. Cincinnati also ranked 28th in sacks. About every spot along the O-Line aside from LG could stand to be upgraded, too. It’s possible Cincinnati considers QBs Drew Lock or Dwayne Haskins, if one falls. The new regime is not tied to Andy Dalton, so the Dalton era should be coming to a close in the near future.
Short List: Devin White, Devin Bush, Andre Dillard, Jawaan Taylor, Jonah Williams, Cody Ford, Brian Burns

12. GB – T.J. Hockenson (TE – Iowa) – Green Bay can go a number of directions here. Hockenson gives Rodgers a game-changer in the passing game, and I think he’s likely the pick if available. The Packers can add an offensive skill player at pick 30, if not. Bryan Bulaga’s health could be an issue, and he’s entering the final year of his contract, and right guard is open for competition. The Packers allowed the 3rd most sacks last season. This could be a nice spot to address the O-Line before a drop off in talent.
Short List: T.J. Hockenson, Andre Dillard, Cody Ford, Jawaan Taylor, Devin Bush, Brian Burns … Noah Fant, Jeffery Simmons, Marquise Brown 

13. MIA – Christian Wilkins (DT – Clemson) – Think trenches with this pick for the “rebuilding” Dolphins, although I can’t say I’m not interested to see what happens to the ‘Fins seemingly patient “Tank for Tua” plan if one of QBs Drew Lock or Dwayne Haskins is available longer than expected. If the premier O-Linemen are off the board, the ‘Fins may consider a clean, safe prospect like Christian Wilkins. New head coach Brian Flores from New England will emphasize leadership and high character prospects for the rebuilding Dolphins, and Wilkins fits the bill.
Short List: Jonah Williams, Jawaan Taylor, Andre Dillard, Christian Wilkins, Brian Burns, Clelin Ferrell, TRADE DOWN: Jeffery Simmons

14. ATL – Chris Lindstrom (OG – B.C.) – The Falcons’ right tackle spot is open for competition, and their offensive guard play was subpar last season. I’m hearing Atlanta is smitten over Ed Oliver and won’t hesitate to move up for him if he lasts until picks 7-8. Last year’s Falcons were well below the league average in sacks, hurries, QB hits, and tackles for loss, which is something defensive minded coach Dan Quinn wants fixed.
Short List: TRADE UP: Ed Oliver, Christian Wilkins, Brian Burns … Andre Dillard, Jawaan Taylor, Cody Ford … TRADE DOWN: Chris Lindstrom, DeAndre Baker

15. WAS – Dwayne Haskins (QB – OSU) – The Redskins are still in the market for a QB and could make a play for Haskins, Lock, Daniel Jones… or Josh Rosen (for say, a second round pick?). According to Peter King, GM Dan Snyder’s son went to the same high school as Haskins in Maryland, so there’s a local tie there.  An upgrade is needed at wide receiver regardless of who plays QB for this team.
Short List: TRADE UP: Dwayne Haskins, Daniel Jones … Drew Lock, Andre Dillard, Marquise Brown, D.K. Metcalf … TRADE DOWN: Darnell Savage

16. CAR – Montez Sweat (DE – Florida) *TRADE* – The Panthers must protect Cam Newton, especially his shoulder. No one on this roster has good experience playing left tackle. If no quality starters at left tackle are available, expect Carolina to address the pass rush here. The Panthers ranked 31st in QB hits and Julius Peppers retired. I’ve been torn on mocking Andre Dillard or Brian Burns here throughout the draft process, as Carolina has been strongly linked to both. Recently, Garrett Bradbury has been throw into the mix here, as well. Ultimately, Dillard is less likely to be available, as he’s coveted by more teams in Round 1 than Bradbury or Burns.
Short List: TRADE UP: Andre Dillard … Brian Burns, Garrett Bradbury, Christian Wilkins, Montez Sweat … Greg Little

17. NYG – Daniel Jones (QB – Duke) – See explanation at pick 6 above.
Short List: TRADE UP: Daniel Jones … Christian Wilkins, Drew Lock, Devin Bush, Brian Burns, Clelin Ferrell, Dexter Lawrence, Cody Ford, Jerry Tillery … Greg Little

18. MIN – Garrett Bradbury (OG – N.C. St.) – The Vikings have had one of the league’s worst offensive lines for three seasons now. If the offensive tackles are all gone in the early teens, I can easily see one of the Iowa tight ends land here. Hockenson would be preferred based on his blocking. I expect the top tier talent along the O-Line to be scooped up by pick 18, so the Vikings will have to decide whether to reach for someone at an area of need or take the BPA (best player available), regardless of position.
Short List: Cody Ford, Jawaan Taylor, Jonah Williams, Andre Dillard, T.J. Hockenson, Garrett Bradbury, Chris Lindstrom, Greg Little 

19. TEN – Clelin Ferrell (DE – Clemson) – If Brian Burns is available, he should be the pick, despite Harold Landry’s presence. There’s a connection to DT Christian Wilkins worth noting: Titans head coach Mike Vrabel tried to recruit Wilkins at Ohio State but missed out on him. The Titans current regime tends to draft players they have visited with in private meetings. Among those visits include Burns, Wilkins, Jerry Tillery, and Marquise Brown, the latter of whom would complement Corey Davis perfectly, giving the Titans a much needed boost at pass catcher and whose speed can help open up the running game.
Short List: Brian Burns, Christian Wilkins, Clelin Ferrell, Marquise Brown, Drew Lock, Jerry Tillery, Rashan Gary

20. PIT – Rock Ya-Sin (CB – UCONN) – Devin Bush being available would be a sprint to the podium pick. It seems like every year, I’m putting cornerback as a must for the Steelers, and every year, they do not draft one in the first round. This is Deja Vu, but don’t be surprised if the Steelers opt to go with a lesser known DB like Lonnie Johnson, Darnell Savage, or Rock Ya-Sin instead of the more household names like Greedy Williams, DeAndre Baker, or Byron Murphy. Any and all DB help is on the table, though.
Short List: TRADE UP: Devin Bush, Greedy Williams, Rock Ya-Sin, Darnell Savage, Byron Murphy

21. SEA – Rashan Gary (ED – Mich.) – More than anything, I think Seattle will look to trade down, and then address defensive back and defensive line early in this draft, especially considering the Hawks are likely to move DE Frank Clark this weekend.
Short List: Clelin Ferrell, Rashan Gary, Montez Sweat, Byron Murphy, Johnathan Abram, Darnell Savage, Jeffery Simmons, Parris Campbell

22. BAL – Erik McCoy (C – Texas AM) – There are holes at offensive guard, edge rusher, and wide receiver. The problem is that the receiver run is expected to occur in Round 2, and the Ravens do not currently own a second round pick. The solution could be to trade out of this spot and acquire one. Baltimore has met with Ferguson thrice, and someone needs to help compensate for the losses of Z’Darius Smith and Terrell Suggs to free agency, while ED Matt Judon is in a contract year. Interior OLs Garrett Bradbury, Chris Lindstrom, and Erik McCoy, as well as RB Josh Jacobs are other possible Round 1 picks here, because the team looks to transition to a run-centered offense around Lamar Jackson. RG Marshal Yanda is 35 years old and LG Alex Lewis has been a liability.
Short List: Jaylon Ferguson, Clelin Ferrell, Garrett Bradbury, Chris Lindstrom, Erik McCoy, Elgton Jenkins, Marquise Brown, Josh Jacobs … TRADE DOWN: D.K. Metcalf, Parris Campbell

23. HOU – Cody Ford (OT – Okla.) – Deshaun Watson has not been protected well early in his career. The Texans are extremely high on Andre Dillard but will likely have to move up to get him. OT is a big enough concern that Houston could do just that, or reach for a second round talent. If not, there’s a glaring need at defensive back, too.
Short List: TRADE UP: Andre Dillard, Cody Ford … Jaylon Ferguson, Greedy Williams, Darnell Savage, DeAndre Baker, Tytus Howard, Greg Little

24. OAK – Josh Jacobs (RB – ‘Bama) – GM Mike Mayock said it best: the defensive end spot on this roster is barren. The Raiders ranked dead last in sacks and QB hits last season and allowed a league-high 8.2 YPA.
Short List: Clellin Ferrell, Josh Jacobs, Marquise Brown, Noah FanT, Jaylon Ferguson

25. PHI – Marquise Brown (WR – Okla.) – The Eagles have a huge needs in the defensive backfield, and they are looking for LT Jason Peters’ successor. RG tore his achilles in the playoffs, and C Jason Kelce has contemplated retirement, making interior OL a concern. The Eagles are supposedly interested in RB Josh Jacobs, too.
Short List: Marquise Brown, Byron Murphy, Chris Lindstrom, Josh Jacobs, Darnell Savage, Jeffery Simmons … Tytus Howard, Dalton Risner

26. IND – Johnathan Abram (S – Miss. St.) – The Colts’ defense overachieved in 2018, but there are still a lot of holes to fill on that side of the ball. If the Colts go offense, I’m eyeing RB Josh Jacobs and WR A.J. Brown for this pick.
Short List: TRADE UP: Brian Burns … Jerry Tillery, Jaylon Ferguson, Darnell Savage, Johnathan Abram, Jeffery Simmons, A.J. Brown

27. OAK – Noah Fant (TE – Iowa) – The Raiders likely want to stick to the defensive side of the ball in Round 1, but an offensive playmaker like Marquise Brown, Josh Jacobs or Noah Fant would be too tough to pass on.
Short List: Clellin Ferrell, Josh Jacobs, Marquise Brown, Noah FanT, Jaylon Ferguson, Greedy Williams, Darnell Savage, Johnathan Abram, Byron Murphy

28. LAC – Drew Lock (QB – Missou) *TRADE WITH DENVER*– There are gaping holes at right tackle, linebacker and defensive tackle. The latter could be filled by Jerry Tillery or Dexter Lawrence, who I think the Chargers like a lot. The linebackers are gone, but Kaleb McGary could start immediately at right tackle. The Chargers have been in the QB market for two years now, and don’t be surprised if Drew Lock or Josh Rosen is a Charger by the end of the draft. There is also a need at safety opposite of Derwin James, making Johnathan Abram or Darnell Savage intriguing options.
Short List: TRADE UP: Drew Lock … Jerry Tillery, Kaleb McGary, Dalton Risner, Johnathan Abram, Darnell Savage, Joejuan Williams

29. SEA – Darnell Savage (S – Maryland) – The Seahawks recently acquired this pick from the Chiefs in exchange for DE Frank Clark. The ‘Hawks need upgrades at defensive back and on the defensive line, and I think whichever area they do not address at pick 22 will be addressed here.
Short List: Rashan Gary, Montez Sweat, Greedy Williams, Byron Murphy, Johnathan Abram, Darnell Savage, Jeffery Simmons, Parris Campbell

30. GB – Jeffery Simmons (DT – Miss. St.) – The Packers need someone to step up as a reliable target behind Davante Adams, and this pick conveniently lands right around the start of a wide receiver and tight end run.
Short List: Jeffery Simmons, Noah Fant, Marquise Brown, A.J. Brown, D.K. Metcalf, Kaleb McGary

31. LAR – Dexter Lawrence (DT – Clemson) – The Rams are looking for offensive line assistance, whether it’s by way of upgrading their interior starters, or finding a future left tackle to replace Andrew Whitworth when he retires… or both.
Short List: Kaleb McGary, Eric McCoy, Elgton Jenkins, Darnell Savage, Johnathan Abram, Jaylon Ferguson

32. NE – N’Keal Harry (WR – ASU) – The Patriots tried hard to recruit Adam Humphries. Even after Humphries had verbally agreed to terms with the Titans, New England tried to persuade him to take their raised offer. This shows they are in the market for a receiver. The Pats have also been showing interest in QB Will Grier, although I believe this to be a smokescreen to drive up the price of this coveted pick, or at minimum to try to get someone to move in front of them to snag Grier, allowing another player to fall to 32. Recall that first round picks have 5th year team options, which are extremely valuable for QBs, so this pick is prime real estate.
Short List: Noah Fant, Johnathan Abram, A.J. Brown, N’Keal Harry, JoeJuan Williams, Will Grier

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