NEW ORLEANS – From past stars like Oscar Robertson, Magic Johnson, Shaq, Tim Duncan, and Allen Iverson, to current stars Lebron James, Anthony Davis, and Ben Simmons, the coveted 1^st overall pick in the NBA can take any team at the bottom of the league to a contender. Each year in the NBA, a slew of teams find themselves closer to the bottom of the standings than the last playoff spot. About two-thirds into the season, we find that about 6-7 teams each year decide they have a different motivation than they did at the beginning of the season; Winning the NBA lottery.

Tanking isn’t a new concept. In 1985, the NBA created the Draft Lottery to combat this by giving each team in the bottom 14 in the standings a percentage chance at the number one pick in the lottery. In September 2017, this rule was expanded even further to detract teams from trying to tank specifically for the number one percentage opportunity by having the worst record.

Here are the odds for each team in 2019 for the #1 pick:

Team > Odds at No. 1 Pick

Team 1 > 14.0%
Team 2 > 14.0%
Team 3 >14.0%
Team 4 > 12.5%
Team 5 > 10.5%
Team 6 > 9.0%
Team 7 > 7.5%
Team 8 > 6.0%
Team 9 > 4.5%
Team 10 > 3.0%
Team 11 > 2.0%
Team 12 > 1.5%
Team 13 > 1.0%
Team 14 > 0.5%

So, the question remains, is tanking logical, or should we cheer our team on despite what it means for their draft stock?

It’s important to note there are two perspectives to consider when making your decision:

The Fan perspective and the Business perspective

There are a few components to remember on the business side of things:

• One thing that will surely happen during an obvious tank is that the fans will dessert the home games until the following season. This means lost revenue in tickets, concessions, merchandise, etc.
• The team may also lose sponsorship due to a paid yearly contract with companies who are now losing marketing dollars because of attendance drops.
• Trust in the fans may be lost if too obvious. Plenty of fans pay a lot of money for season tickets to watch their home team win games. This could cost potential season ticket holders the following season to bail on this option.
• The NBA also has a no tanking rule. According to NBA.com, “Teams can’t sit healthy players for high-profile, nationally televised games, and fines for violating that can be for at least $100,000.”

From the Fan perspective:

Much like the business side of things, there are two types of fans to address:

The Analytical Fan – Someone who is looking for the best interest of the team based on the current and potential prospects.

The Casual Fan – Fans that enjoy watching the game casually and care less about the business side.

The Analytical Fan will be more likely to be in favor of tanking IF the circumstances are right. If your team is in the 14^th lottery slot towards the end of the season, your chances of being in the top 3 is at 0.5%. So, the analytical fan may decide playing for a playoff spot would be more practical. On the other hand, if your team is currently slotted at the 7^th lottery slot, your chances shoot up to 7.5%. Also, only moving up 4 spots would almost double your chances at 14%. So, the analytical fan may decide that depending on where you are in the standings, and what time of the season you are currently at, would determine whether tanking is the logical choice.

The Casual Fan simply wants to be entertained for a few hours and cheer on their home team. They are less likely to be interested in statistics and detailed analysis. They may tune into their local sports radio station to get updates. The casual fan may shake their heads at roster moves that are contrary to helping win games now like cap slashing, trading for draft picks, and releasing talented players for cap room. They want to win now, not later. There are also many fans who fall in between these two types and aren’t necessarily far to either side.

Let’s look at the NBA Lottery results from 2003 – Present:

Here are some interesting facts about the NBA Lottery from the past 15 years:

• 5 of the past 6 #1 picks have been from outside of the USA
• John Calipari has coached 4 of the past 11 #1 picks
• 2 of the players have won an MVP
• 3 of the players have won an NBA Championship
• Only 3 have been considered a bust of 16 picks
• The Cavaliers have had 4 #1 picks since 2003

To find out if tanking for the #1 pick is worth the hassle, we must review what percentage of the players taken at this position really made a significant impact on the team that selected them.

Lebron James: The best player taken in the draft since Michael Jordan. He will most likely be the best #1 pick of all time. Every scout raved about him since he was 16 and he made the leap to the NBA with ease in 2003. While this pick would have you believe tanking is worth it, this only happens every 20-30 years.

The only other players to go to an NBA Championship are Dwight Howard, Kyrie Irving, and Andrew Bogut. We understand that Bogut was in a few Championship games because of Curry, Thompson, and Draymond Green. We can also verify that until Lebron came back to Cleveland, Kyrie really had very little impact on winning for the Cavs. Lastly, Dwight Howard was the only player on this list aside from Lebron to will his own team to a Championship game.

The math is simple. 2/16 Picks have taken their team as a leader to the Finals. More players have been busts than actual Finals team leaders. Above is a list of many talented stars that have made All-Star games, but have not led a team deep into the playoffs, much less to the Finals as a leader besides Lebron and Howard.

Because every draft class is different, we must assess the current draft class. The real prize is Zion Williamson, a 6’7” forward from Duke. At an astonishing 285 pounds, he’s about 25 pounds heavier than Lebron. He has been considered the next best thing since Lebron. He’s currently scoring 21.6 PPG, 8.8 RPG, 2.2 SPG, 1.8 BPG, and 2.2 SPG.

Conclusion: Is tanking logical?

Yes, if the circumstances are right.

From the perspective of a New Orleans Pelicans fan, we are currently slotted in the 9^th spot with a 4.5% chance at the number one pick.

According to the current lottery standings and odds provided by Tankathon.com, we can see that the Pelicans have a record of 30-37. With 15 games left, there is very little chance the Pelicans can tank enough to get into the top 3 with a 14% chance. However, they are within 3.5 games of the 6^th spot, doubling their chances to 9%. This may not be enough to land Zion Williamson, but it’s a much better shot to get one of his teammates Cam Reddish or R.J. Barrett.

The things to consider if you are wondering if your team should tank should be the following:

How many games are left?

What is the team record?

Who are the top prospects?

Do you believe your team or any other team should tank at all? Leave me your thoughts and comments below.

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Categories: The Pelican Post

Tags: Duke Basketball, First Overall, LeBron James, NBA Draft, NBA Lottery, New Orleans Pelicans, Tanking in Sports, Zion Williamson